Research and pilots

Detection lead time has been measured on eight farms in the Netherlands.Not on a US broiler farm.

PoultraIQ is recruiting research and grower partners for structured field validation of PoultraIQ Daily.

The research question

On a commercial broiler farm, using only the data a grower already records by hand, how many hours of advance warning can a simple statistical anomaly model provide before a condition becomes operationally obvious?

This is a narrow question and that is intentional. It is answerable inside a single growout cycle, it does not require new hardware on the farm, it is compatible with biosecurity restrictions because it requires no vendor site presence, and the answer is useful whether it is large or small.

It is also nearly unstudied. The published work on detection lead time from grower-recorded daily data amounts to a small number of retrospective avian influenza analyses in Europe. There is no prospective validation, nothing on endemic production disease, and nothing on a US broiler farm. We set out what is actually published, including the study that contradicted our own earlier assumption, in our note on detection lead time.

What we are looking for

Three kinds of partner.

University extension and poultry science programs

Land-grant institutions with grower relationships and research flock access. We are prepared to serve as the industry partner on a grant application and to provide the software at no cost for the study period.

Grower cooperators

Independent and multi-house operators willing to run a parallel log for one to two cycles. Free access, no hardware, no site visits required, and your operating data is not shared with your integrator.

Equipment and sensor partners

Controller and sensor manufacturers interested in whether an anomaly layer sitting on top of existing installed hardware increases the value of that hardware.

Protocol

What a pilot involves.

  1. Define the baseline.

    One cycle of parallel logging establishes normal for each house.

  2. Run the flags silently.

    Anomaly detection runs without alerting, so it cannot influence operator behavior during the measurement window.

  3. Reconcile against events.

    Flags are compared retrospectively against recorded events — mortality spikes, equipment failures, water line issues, ventilation problems — to measure lead time and false-positive rate.

  4. Publish the result.

    With the partner’s consent, and whether or not the result is favorable.

Funding

Non-dilutive pathways we are pursuing.

PoultraIQ is structuring its validation work around established public research funding, so that the first growers to run it are not the ones paying for the measurement.

USDA SBIR

Automated poultry-house monitoring and early disease detection through behavioral analysis are named eligible topics under the livestock health area.

USDA NIFA SBIR →

USDA NIFA

Precision Agriculture in Animal Production.

Program page →

USPOULTRY Foundation

Comprehensive Research Program.

Program page →

Specificity against false alarm rate for six detection rules Scatter plot. Rules with the highest specificity produce the fewest false alarms. Simple mortality thresholds sit in the upper left. CUSUM methods sit in the lower right with far more false alarms. 0 25 50 75 100 0 1 2 3 4 False alarms per day per 1,000 farms Specificity (%) Mortality ≥0.5% for 1 day Mortality ≥0.25% for 1 day Mortality ratio >2.9 Egg-production ratio CUSUM on mortality CUSUM on egg production Upper left is better. The simplest rules win.
Every gain in sensitivity is paid for in false alarms. The plainest mortality thresholds outperform the more elaborate statistical methods on specificity, which is why PoultraIQ Daily starts with a threshold and not a model. Elbers & Gonzales, layer flocks
Published work

What we have written down.

The evidence base

What is actually known about broiler house technology, grower economics, and the mortality trend — with sample sizes, dates, and the places where the data does not exist.

Read the evidence base →

The landscape

Who else is building software for poultry houses, what happened to the ones that failed, and where a manual-entry product does and does not compete.

Read the landscape →

Notes

Short technical pieces on detection lead time, water intake as a leading indicator, and the limits of a rolling baseline.

Read the notes →

Propose a pilot or a joint application.

Tell us what you have access to — houses, growers, a research flock, or a grant cycle with a deadline.

Propose a pilot or a joint application